Given the projected challenges for luxury goods in China and Swatch's recent profit decline, I believe SWGAY is an ideal candidate for a short position. The market sentiment is likely to weigh heavily on Swatch's performance until it can stabilize and recover in the second half of the year.

Given the significant drop in Swatch Group's profits due to weak demand in China, I believe the company's challenges are likely to persist, creating an opportunity to short SWGAY. The market's expectation for improvement later in the year may not be enough to counteract ongoing weak sales.